Tuesday, September 23, 2008, 03:07 PM EST [General]
- TrueHoop's Henry Abbott commented yesterday on the Charlotte Bobcats missing a whopping 605 free throws last year on their way to the second-worst Free Throw Percentage in the league at 71.4%. The thing took on a life of it's own, which is about time, because we've gone several months without an interesting discussion of basketball statistics. John Hollinger determined that if the Bobcats had shot the league-average from the stripe (75.5%), they would have won about 3 more games.
- But as a good Cleveland sports fan, I could care less about what that semi-pro team in Charlotte did last year. What about the Cavs? What if we applied the same thing to LeBron James' free throw shooting? LeBron shot 771 free throws last year, and made 549 of them, for a 71.2% free throw shooting percentage. If LeBron had shot the league average, he would have made 597 free throws, scoring 48 more points. If LeBron had shot a Jordan-esque number - say 85% - he would have made 655 free throws and scored 105 more points last year.
- Would those 105 points have made a difference last year? Well, that's hard to tell. See, the Cavaliers went 45-37 last year, for a winning percentage of 54.8%. Not a great season, but hey, it could be worse. But the Cavs were actually outscored by their opponent over the course of last season, 7903-7932. Those numbers indicate that the Cavs should only have won 40.9 games last year, according to the Pythagorean Win-Loss formula (a rather simplistic formula the calculates the number of expected wins, given the total number of points a team scores versus the number of points it allows). The Cavaliers obviously had a strange year last year. When they lost, they got crushed, and when they won, it was usually by just a few points. Because of those irregularities, the Pythagorean Win-Loss formula doesn't translate too well, but it's a good place to start when trying to determine the impact of a few extra points on the overall win-loss record of the team.
- If we add 105 LeBron free throw points to the Cavs' overall total from last year, they outscore their opponents 8008-7932. But the point difference is still very small relative to the whole season, and the expected number of wins only climbs to 41.2. By the simple (and relatively accurate) measure of Pythagorean Win-Loss record, a better free throw shooting LeBron would make almost no difference over the course of a season (approximately 1/3 of a win).
- But that's over the season, and as we've already seen with the Cavaliers last year, Pythagorean Win-Loss records don't tell the whole story. What about each game? How many more games would the Cavs have won (or lost) if LeBron shot 80% from the free throw line? What if he shot 85%? While each game is different, and has an ebb and flow all its own, guess how many games LeBron James could have changed if he was a good, or even great, free throw shooter. Do you have a number in mind?
- 3 Games. That's right, only 3 games last season were decided by the free throw prowress, or lack thereof, of LeBron James. Those games were: at Utah 11/9/07 (Cavs lost 103-101 on Deron Williams' buzzer-beating layup over Z), vs Boston 11/27/07 (Cavs won 109-104 in OT) and vs Milwaukee 12/17/07 (Cavs won 104-99 in 2OTs). Those are the only games that would have had a different outcome (at least at the end of the game) if LeBron had only made an average number of free throws. And two of those games would have turned into losses, because LeBron actually shot better than 80% in those two Cavalier wins that went into overtime.
- Now, before anyone starts ranting, this is obviously an oversimplification. We have all witnessed the ends of NBA games, where the losing team repeated fouls the winning team, leading to a final score that is more lopsided than the actual game. I'm sure there are a few games over the course of last season when an extra LeBron free throw or two would have made a difference in the last few minutes.
- But even if LeBron became a great free throw shooter, the overall impact would be worth about a point a game. While that is significant, it's not as important as many people, including myself, think it is. At the end of they day, LeBron James' many, many other abilities on the court far outweigh his mild free throw difficiency.
- The Cavs have traded for Mo Williams of the Bucks, sending Damon Jones to Milwaukee and Joe Smith to Oklahoma City in a 3-team trade. (Of note, this marks Brian Windhorst's first story after returning from a long illness. Way to come back, Brian, and well done.)
- I love this trade for the Cavaliers. It is exactly what they needed, and they were able to make the deal without sacrificing any youth or Wally's expiring contract. My only problem is that most Cavs fans have never heard of Mo Williams, but I'm pretty sure that will change quickly.
- We know the Cavs can defend, especially in the playoffs. What they lacked was an offensive instigator not named LeBron. Williams fits the bill perfectly. He can score (17.2ppg in 07-08), he has solid range (38% from 3 last year), and is an above average passer (6.3 assists per game). He can really kick-start the moribund Cavalier offense, and that should translate into very exciting basketball early in the season.
- Pairing a point guard with LeBron has always been a priority, and for good reason. With Larry Hughes, defenses knew that once the ball was in Hughes' hands, they were in good shape. He wasn't going to penetrate, he wasn't going to pass, and most likely, he wasn't going to make his jumper. While there are plenty of wing players better than Hughes, the problem is essentially the same: when the ball is in the hands of a Michael Redd or a Vince Carter, odds are they are going to shoot it. And every defense feels better when they know that the ball isn't going to end up in LeBron's hands.
- Williams is the complete opposite. He is very good at getting to the hoop (not Tony Parker or Chris Paul quality, but above average), and he can hit the open jumper if the defense drops back. But, most importantly, he is willing to pass the ball. Mo Williams' scoring ability forces you to pay attention to him, but as soon as you do, he's going to find LeBron James in great position, and LeBron is going to kill you. LeBron might not like it, but running a pick and roll with Williams and LeBron would be very hard to defend.
- Still, there are some (rather big) question marks. First, he's small at 6-1, 185. Yes, I know that Mark Price was (slightly) smaller, but the league is really hard on small guards right now, even without Rick Mahorn elbowing them in the temple. Second, Williams has only averaged 66 games a season in his five-year career. Last season showed how much injuries can disrupt the flow of a season, and a guy who is almost guaranteed to miss 15 games isn't going to help that. Finally, his averages, especially his points per game, are inflated from playing on a no-defense team in Milwaukee for the last 2 years. And while I have faith in Mike Brown's ability to make Williams into at least an average defender, he's still below average in that regard.
- Despite all those concerns, this is still a great move for the Cavs. They pick up a legitimate offensive weapon in Williams, and they manage to get him for Joe Smith and Damon Jones.
- The Cavs are going to miss Joe Smith. I know that everyone is excited about J.J. Hickson, but he's still a long way from being a consistent contributor, and Mike Brown isn't going to give him serious minutes until he learns to play defense. Smith gave them a solid mid-range weapon on offense, and he was usually adequate on defense (a particularly humbling loss to New Orleans last year notwithstanding). The frontcourt has been a strength for this team in the last three seasons, and the Cavs need it to be again if they want to contend. Ilgauskas and Wallace are old, and they are inevitably going to miss games to injury. The Cavs are going to need quality support from their backup bigs, and the trading of Smith weakens that line.
- The Cavs will not miss Damon Jones. Damon had a bad rap here in Cleveland, mostly because of his over-inflated ego and his mediocre performance. For some reason fans expected a guy who talked that much to back it up, failing to recognize that this was a guy who had been on 10 NBA teams, and wasn't exactly making $20 Million. He was never as good as he thought he was, but he was never as bad as most fans thought he was either.
- This was a three-team trade with the Bucks and the OKC "Thunder", sending Williams to the Cavs, Joe Smith and Desmond Mason to Oklahoma City, and Damon Jones, Luke Ridnour and Adrian Griffin to the Bucks. But it seems clear to me that, at least in the short term, Danny Ferry was the big winner.
- The Bucks, who made a major move on draft day trading Yi Jianlian to the Nets for Richard Jefferson, looked like they were trying to make a run. Now they've dumped their starting point guard, choosing to turn the reins over to Ramon Sessions. Sessions started in the D-League last year, only to come up at the end of the year and play well, even having a 24-assist game against Chicago (albeit in a game that ended at 151-135...in regulation). Mason was unnecessary with the addition of Jefferson, but given the lousy players they got back for Williams, I have to call the Bucks losers on this one.
- The To-Be-Named-Laters seemed to make a lateral move, but definitely ended up better than the Bucks. Ridnour and Griffin had no place on the team, and the addition of Joe Smith should benefit the young OKC team by adding experience and stability to their front line.
- I have to give Danny Ferry credit on this one. In considering moves for this offseason, acquiring Mo Williams never warranted serious consideration. He has a long contract, but it's very reasonable given his production, and he's just about to enter the prime of his career. While the Bucks were high on Sessions, there was no reason for them to move Williams in the offseason after the acquisition of Jefferson. A three-pronged attack of Williams, Redd and Jefferson would have been a solid compliment to new Head Coach Scott Skiles' defensive mindset. Now, the Bucks have essentially traded Williams for a little roster flexibility. They didn't even get a Draft Pick. I have to think that the Bucks fans (are there still more than one?) will be pretty put off by this. Which means that Danny Ferry must be doing something right.
- But most importantly, the Cavs have added a weapon that gets them closer to a Championship. This was a very, very good trade for the Wine and Gold.
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