With only about 3 weeks to go until training camp starts, Danny Ferry has several difficult decisions to make.

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Looking at our team salary for the next 3 years (my predictions):

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The first big decision:

should we avoid making any (more) moves that will reduce our cap space summer 2010?  The trade for Mo Williams was a great move, IMO, but it reduces our estimated cap space summer 2010 to about $20 to $25 million, which will be enough to make the maximum offer (about $20 million for the first year) to one of the "gold medal superstar" players available.

IMO, the "gold medal superstars" that probably will be available as unrestricted free agents (and are for sure worth the maximum) are:

LeBron James (12/30/84): P10/11

Dwayne Wade (1/17/82): P10/11

Chris Bosh (3/24/84) P10/11

Amare Stoudamire (11/16/82): P10/11

Joe Johnson (6/29/81): E10

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There are quite a few other "superstars" that probably will (or might) be available: as unrestricted free agents - for less than the maximum salary:

Ray Allen (7/20/75): E10

Paul Pierce (10/13/77): P10/11

Dirk Nowitzki (6/19/78): P10/11

Rip Hamilton (2/14/78): P09/10

Tracy McGrady (5/24/79): E10

Yao Ming (9/12/80): P10/11

Michael Redd (8/24/79): P10/11

Richard Jefferson (6/21/80): P10/11

Peja Stojakovic (6/9/77): P10/11

Tyson Chandler (10/2/82): P10/11

Steve Nash (2/7/74): E10

Manu Ginobili (7/28/77): E10

Carlos Boozer (11/20/81): P09/10

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P09/10: player option for 2009/10

P10/11: player option for 2010/11

E10: contract expires summer 2010

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There may be others that you think should be included in these lists - or you might feel that some of these listed don't belong there.  Feel free to disagree - these lists are just my opinions.

Remember that we can offer the maximum salary to LeBron (summer 2010 - if he opts out of the 4th year of his contract) using our Bird rights - we don't need any cap space.

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My guess is that Ferry has already decided to preserve that cap space for summer 2010.  Once Ferry has made this first big decision, he then has to decide what course to pursue with our roster for the next 2 seasons - there are 3 players to make decisions on:

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Second decision - Darnell Jackson:

I picked Jackson first because his situation is probably the easiest to handle and should be done very soon.  Most 2nd round draft picks are offered a guaranteed 2 year contract with the NBA minimum salary for each of the 2 years, which would be:

2008/09: $442,114

2009/10: $736,420

My guess is that Ferry has already offered this to Jackson, but Jackson and his agent are "holding out" for more money or more years (or both).  IMO, Ferry is reluctant to pay him more money mainly because that would mean that part of the MLE or the BAE would have to be used.  If Jackson signs for the NBA minimums, no exceptions need to be used.  Ferry probably wants to save those exceptions (especially the MLE) in case a good FA becomes available via waivers or whatever (Joe Smith, anyone).

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Jackson has been signed to a 3 year guaranteed contract.

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Third decision - Delonte West:

This decision is tougher - some of the factors:

1. Who will be the backup PG?  It could be Delonte.

2. Who will be the starting and backup SG?  It could be Delonte.

3. If Delonte is signed to a long term (3+ years) contract, that could reduce our cap space summer 2010 to less than $20 million.

IMO, Danny has probably offered Delonte a 2 year contract for about $4 to $5 million a year (with maybe a team option for more years).  Delonte and his agent are probably asking for more money/years.  Danny might be very happy if Delonte signs his QO.  Personally, I would like to see Delonte signed for 2 years with a team option for 3 or 4 years - I think that Delonte wiould be a valuable player in the backcourt, either starting or as a backup PG/SG - I like what I have seen of him.

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IMO, it is a bad move to let a "good" player walk for nothing, which would most likely happen if Delonte signed his QO.  If it were me, I would offer Delonte more (about $11 million for 2 years - with a team option for a 3rd year).

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Fourth decision - Anderson Varejao:

This is by far the toughest decision.  Since it is usually a bad move to let a "good" player walk for nothing, we should probably try to trade Andy before the trading deadline or else we will probably lose him for nothing.  There have been rumors (no definite links that I know of) that Andy/Fegan have blocked at least one trade that Ferry has presented to them - whether these rumors are true or not is beside the point of this thread - the fact is that Andy is still a Cav.

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If the rumors are true, why are Andy and Dan Fegan blocking any trades?  It might be that they think that Cleveland is the best place for Andy to get a lot of playing time and to "showcase" his talents and increase his value for that big contract they hope to get if/when he opts out next summer.  IMO, that is the real reason rather than them trying to "stick it to the Cavs".  In addition, maybe they are also hoping that Andy plays real well up to December 6th (when Andy can be traded without his consent) and Danny will put off trading him until the deadline or just keep him for the entire season.

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So, the decision for Danny to make:

1.Play Andy and keep very actively trying to trade him from today right up to the trading deadline for the best deal we can get.  Also, Andy could be packaged with one or more of our expiring contracts for a "major" player or players.

2. Just plan on keeping and playing Andy for the entire season and then try to sign him next summer when he will probably be an unrestricted free agent.  If we sign Andy next summer to a big long term contract, we would probably lose our cap space summer 2010.  Would you rather have Andy from 2010 on or possibly Chris Bosh (or Wade or Amare or Joe Johnson)?

3. Put Andy on the bench and don't play him at all and try to trade him as soon as we can - December 6th.

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So, Andy is a key piece to our keeping $20+ million in cap space summer 2010.  If we re-sign him or trade him for a player with a long and large contract, we could lose our cap space summer 2010.  Again, would you rather have Andy for 2010 and beyond or possibly Bosh/Wade/Amare/Johnson?

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I, for one, would rather gamble on getting Bosh/Wade/Amare/Johnson or one (or two) of the other very good players that will probably be available summer 2010 rather than an "average" player like AV.

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Another very interesting situation will likely occur summer 2010.  Many teams (I am guessing that there will be at least 15) will be well below the cap.  Teams that are below the cap can trade with each other without the requirement of matching the salaries.  For example, a player making $3 million could be traded for a player making $15 million.

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The summer of 2010 could be wild

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Golfer2

Get rid of Delonte and AV

in 2010 aim for a superstar PF or C. Big Z  and both Ben Wallace are getting old and will retire in the next couple of seasons. If we take this opportunity to sign a great one for their replacement.

Again, it is usually not "good business" for a GM to let players with some value to just walk for nothing.

These are very tough decisions.  First, I say don't make any more moves now.  We probably need another big, but we should see how much responsibility JJ can handle, and find out if AV is playing like he did before his injury last year.  Sign Lance.  He hasn't shown much yet, but he could surely help if he got some minutes.  Also with Mo on the court, Lebron might be down low more and take some of the heat off our older guys and possibly develop his post game better.  We saw his ability to guard bigger guys in the olympics.  If things aren't working by the deadline, trade wally and AV for a big.  I think we could potentially get someone really great.  If it's not a gold medal winner and we have to take extra years that could be ok, because I think a lot of these guys(Bosch, Wade, etc) are gonna be franchise players their whole careers.  I would also pay Jackson the minimum, but not more.  He won the NCAA, but his summer league performance wasn't spectacular.  I really like Delonte.  I like your ideas for the 2 years with the 3rd or 4th team option, but I don't think he will take it.  Hopefully, at some point he will see that this is the best way for him to get a championship.  I was really impressed with his grit in the playoffs and want to keep him, but we need that cap space.  I think our team was good before and really good now, but messing up on these key choices, could cause long-term problems and regrets if Jackson turns out to be great and he walks and if Mo gets hurt and Delonte isn't on our team anymore.

If a team is interested in Delonte and can offer us a solid 'veteran' big, then I think we should put a deal together. I'm a big Delonte fan, but I really question what his role will be with the team at this point. As Golfer said, I'd hate for Delonte to just sign the QO for a year and then we could potentially lose him for nothing. If that's the case though and we end up only getting Delonte for one year then I say he should be our starting SG next to Mo.

With our front court aging and not being so deep right now I am actually optimisitic because that could mean extra minutes and exposure for J.J. Hickson. I honestly think this kid is ready to be put  out there. He may be the pot of gold that was pick #19.

Even though I'm not the biggest AV fan, I think he'll get solid playing time. As mentioned before we have an aging front court, so Andy will have to play big minutes IMO to keep Z and Ben fresh. We also need Andy out there to build up any trade value for the deadline. If we can package him and a filler at the deadline for an all-star calibur player then we should do it. Andy Will be gone next season regardless. Let's get something in return while we can.

I had no idea that LeBron would be an unrestricted FA in 2010.  Do we still have his bird rights?